I really like this match up and it really comes down to the Giants having one disadvantage and that's out of their bullpen, but they do carry a 2.74 ERA on the road on the year so they are not at that big of a disadvantage. Matt Cain takes the mound and I think we are getting great value here based on his earlier performance vs. the Padres at home 7.1 innings, 6 ER. Not of quality, but Cain has not pitched great against the Padres at home, but in San Diego things are much different. Since 2011 he carries a 1.03 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP vs. the Padres over 5 starts. I think he's been wildly inconsistent this year and it would be very fitting for him to seek a little revenge on the Padres who roughed him up the last time. Overall he has dominated these hitters in 226 total AB holding them to a .204 average and a .578 OPS.
On the other hand Eric Stults has been worse on the year carrying a 5.27 ERA at home and he really has not seen the benefits of pitching on 5 days rest like your typical pitcher would. In his last 10 starts vs. the Giants which only goes back to 2012 he carries a 5.50 ERA and the Giants collectively have 195 AB and a .318 average, .893 OPS. I love my chances backing Cain based on those numbers with the odds we are getting. Not to mention the Giants are a top 10 team in OPS vs. LHP this year and over their last 10 they have great advantages batting .311 and scoring 5.73 runs per 9 vs. LHP compared to the Padres .207, 3.38 vs. RHP. Home away splits are much of the same with the Giants at a +1.48 runs per 9 advantage in this situation. When you combine the fact that Stults has not looked very good, the Giants success against him and LHP along with Cain's domination in San Diego the result is for a very good chance at a win.
